In the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) International Energy Outlook 2021, released earlier this month, the EIA forecast that the global light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet will grow from 1.31 billion vehicles in 2020 to 2.21 billion vehicles by 2050. EIA projected that electric vehicles (EVs)—any LDV with a charging plug—will grow from 0.7% of the global LDV fleet in 2020 to 31% in 2050, reaching 672 million vehicles.
Significant growth in EV sales and shares of sales through the projection period results in the global conventional gasoline and diesel LDV fleet peaking in 2038 in the EIA forecast.
EIA also projects that an increase in economic activity, population, and private mobility will result in more global LDVs through 2050.
EIA projects the population of non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries will grow at more than three times the population growth rate of OECD countries and that the non-OECD motorization rate will increase from 92 vehicles per thousand people to 173 vehicles per thousand people between 2020 and 2050. The OECD countries’ motorization rate remains around 530 vehicles per thousand people through the projection period.
Because of this growth in population and motorization rates, EIA projects the number of LDVs in non-OECD countries will surpass those in OECD countries in 2025.
EIA projects EV fleet shares will reach 34% in OECD countries and 28% in non-OECD countries by 2050. Although the conventional LDV fleet peaks in 2023 for OECD countries, faster growth in the non-OECD fleet results in nearly two-thirds of light-duty EVs being in non-OECD countries by 2050.